Phantom Yield Loss – A phenomenon related to yield loss with little to no explanation why, aside from letting the grain dry naturally, prior to harvest.

Farmers who have to pause harvest, after opening a field, do record decreased yields when they return to continue combining. A few things come to mind when considering what the losses are a result of. Could it be ear drop? Or lodging is a common occurrence, the longer the crop stands in the field and is exposed to wildlife, snow, or wind. Another consideration is that as the grain dries in the field, it does loosen from the cob and can fall to the ground when disturbed. Low moisture grain is also susceptible to cracking or breakage at harvest, resulting in losses.

Speaking to Manitoba farmers, it appears that phantom yield loss is caused by none of the above. All the obvious culprits (ear drop, lodging, kernel shattering) can be accounted for and there are yield penalties beyond these factors, still.

Purdue University performed research on this topic in the early 90’s – before the phenomenon even had a name. The project looked at three hybrids over the course of four years and measured kernel dry weight until physiological maturity and again after maturity until they were ready for harvest. The study found that kernel dry weight increased until reaching physiological maturity, which occurred at about 25% moisture for all three hybrids. Following maturity, during the dry down period, kernel dry weight decreased by an average of 1.1% for every one per cent decrease in grain moisture content. This is an average across three hybrids in the four years of study. There was one year where none of the hybrids experienced any significant changes in kernel dry weight. The “bottom line” of the project is that there is a potential average 1% yield loss per point decrease in grain moisture content. That is to say that if a field is left to naturally dry down 5 moisture points following physiological maturity, there is a potential +/- 5% yield loss.

So, how does this occur and why? We now know that this is part of the drying process, but why is so much dry matter being lost as the grain dries a small amount?

Quite simply, physiological maturity occurs and each kernel develops a “black layer” where it connects to the cob and had gained access to nutrients and water throughout the season. Once black layer is achieved, grain continues to use up the starch and sugar reserves, which decreases kernel dry weight and quality. Grain is typically alive following black layer until it has dried down to around 15% moisture, so it is not surprising that this process results in loss of dry matter.

Unfortunately, it is impossible to predict losses as a result of this phenomenon. Factors affecting losses include harvest timing, soil type, hybrid/genetics, and of course, environmental factors. That being said, it is difficult to predict what genetics are most susceptible to respiration losses following black layer, so that isn’t something that would normally factor into hybrid choices. Earlier harvest timing is the best way to avoid significant losses, in this case. As mentioned, losses are impossible to predict, but measuring drying costs against the alternate potential yield loss is key in finding the best management practice for your farm.