Using Data & Seasonality to Improve Grain Marketing Decisions
The following article is a recap of “Planning Without Prediction: Using Data to Improve the Odds,” a presentation in our Roots to Results Webinar Series. The full webinar recording can be viewed here.
Grain markets have rhythms. Knowing them helps you sell with more discipline and less emotion. Farmers don’t need to predict the future to make better marketing decisions, says Chuck Penner from LeftField Commodity Research.
Using historic price patterns, seasonal trends and simple, odds-based thinking can increase confidence, reduce stress and improve financial outcomes. There are clear seasonal patterns, including the reliable price rebound after harvest. Timing sales around seasonal highs delivers profits more times than not.
Here are five key takeaways from Penner’s webinar you can put to use on your farm to increase profits, reduce stress and deepen your market intelligence.
Use Patterns Instead of Predictions
Price prediction is unreliable because market drivers such as weather, geopolitics, trade policy and freight costs change constantly. But price patterns repeat often enough that farmers can use them to guide decisions.
- Most crops follow predictable seasonal movements, with lows at harvest and recoveries later.
- Across nine years of CWRS wheat data, prices were higher by the end of October in all nine years, averaging $0.83/bu higher from the seasonal low.
- “History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes”—use the rhyme.
Implementation
Build a simple seasonal reference chart for your crops as a check before reacting to bearish harvest news or elevator pressure. Add two markers:
- Seasonal low (usually harvest).
- Seasonal highs (often November and May).
Seasonal Lows and Highs are Real and Useful
Penner’s “thought experiments” showed that timing sales around seasonal highs historically outperformed both equal-month sales and cash-flow-based sales.
- Selling CWRS in the mid-May seasonal high produced the strongest price in nine of 12 years.
- Equal monthly sales provided average results; cash-flow-timed sales (October/December/March/June) were nearly identical to monthly sales.
- In a sample mixed farm, seasonal-high selling outperformed equal-month sales by an average of $100,000/year across 10 years.
Implementation
You don’t need to sell everything at the high. Instead:
- Pre-plan to price a portion during your crop’s historical seasonal high month.
- Use firm targets for those months to reduce emotion and decision fatigue.
Watch Post-Harvest Behaviour, Don’t Panic Early
Even in tough years, prices usually rise in the month following harvest.
- Panic selling at harvest is often driven by noise, not reality: buyers, analysts and media tend to amplify negative news during post-harvest lows.
- In nine of nine years, CWRS prices rose by October—sometimes slightly, sometimes dramatically.
Implementation
- When prices drop in July–September, assume the decline is normal, not a warning signal.
- Set a no-sale window for the weeks immediately after harvest, unless exceptional opportunities arise.
Test Various Approaches to Clarify Your Decision-Making
Testing different sales approaches, such as seasonal-high sales, equal-month sales, or cash-flow-timed sales, helps you see how each strategy would have performed historically on your farm, replacing guesswork with clearer, more confident decisions.
- These comparisons reveal how different choices behave in different market years, not just the good ones.
- They help you separate emotion from strategy by showing the range of realistic outcomes.
Implementation
- Compare your past bids using three approaches: seasonal-high sales, equal-month sales and cash-flow-timed sales.
- Use the strategy that shows the most stable, repeatable results as the foundation for this year’s sales plan.
Seasonal Norms Aren’t Everything, Market Shocks Matter
Seasonal highs and lows work best in “normal” supply/demand conditions.
- Trade shocks, policy changes or major global events can break seasonal trends (e.g., pea tariffs, drought years).
Implementation
If markets aren’t behaving seasonally (e.g., no fall recovery or persistent weakness), shift to strategy B:
- Sell increments on profitability signals.
- Respond quickly to basis improvements and buyer incentives.
- Avoid waiting out a pattern that year won’t follow.
